Variety, March 11, 1996

THE OMEN
TABMAGS HOPE SYNDIE CYCLE
HASN'T SPUN AWAY

by JIM BENSON

Now that the bubble has burst in the saturated syndicated talkshow arena -- six yakkers have died so far this season, two more are on the critical list and even such returning hits as "Ricki Lake" are in trouble -- the industry is shifting its concern to the crowded magazine field.

Syndicated entertainment and tabloid magazines veered off the fast track about two or three years ago, when they started to see their numbers erode in the important primetime access hour. In the wake of another poor sweeps perf, the troubled genre is beginning to receive more attention.

The Nielsen national barter rankings overlapping the four weeks of the February sweeps, when viewing levels are at their highest, tell the story:

Paramount's top-rated "Entertainment Tonight" climbs from a 9.2 rating in February '93 to 9.6 the following year, then collapses to 7.8 last winter and 7.1 in the most recent four-week period.

In its second year, Warner Bros.' "Extra" slips 3% to 3.8 as it undergoes a metamorphosis from entertainment to a People magazine-oriented format.

King World's "Inside Edition" declines every year since February '93 (8.6, 8.1, 6.6 and 6.4). Its companion, "American Journal," holds steady at 4.9 for the first two years before dropping to 4.3 and finally, 4.1.

Par's "Hard Copy" soars from 6.6 in '93 to 7.8 in '94, but crashes to 6.4 a year ago and 5.2 last month.

And the once-dominant and now-canceled Twentieth TV magazine "A Current Affair" dives 61% from 8.2 in February '93 to a 3.2 in its final February outing this year.

Fingering O.J.

Syndicators blame their troubles during the 1994-95 season on the O.J. Simpson trial, which siphoned women viewers over the age of 55 to CNN, CNBC and other outlets.

This season, the culprits are two hit off-net sitcoms that appear in access, "Home Improvement" and "Seinfeld."

The numbers support the theory. Nielsen metered market results from the recently concluded sweeps period show that all the big syndie programs in access, including the stalwarts "Wheel of Fortune" and "Jeopardy!" fell year-to-year against the two comedies -- particularly "Home," which is generating ratings and demos not seen since the off-net debut of "The Cosby Show" in the late 1980s.

In afternoon early fringe time periods, where the new sitcoms are not a factor, "Inside" remained flat year-to-year, "Journal" inched up a fraction and "Extra" was flat. In fact, the only magazine to show household erosion in the daypart was "Hard Copy," which sank to a 5.5 rating from 5.9.

Youngsters fickle

Researchers note that younger viewers, those in the 18-34 and 18-49 age groups, are generally the first people to check out a new show and also the first to defect. They led the charge away from gameshows to magazines, and now they're turning from magazines to sitcoms.

"'Wheel' and 'Jeopardy!' have totally lost their young-adult base," a researcher says. "The same thing happened earlier with successful shows like 'Tic Tac Dough' and 'The Joker's Wild,' ... the 'Dating' and 'Newlywed' games. They lost their 18-49 core, got old and went away. It's all part of the cycle with firstrun shows in the access time period."

To give them a fighting chance against the new and powerful competition, the magazines have all tinkered with their formats to one degree or another. Virtually all of them have added more sex to attract younger viewers.

But a programming exec complains that they are all simply "throwing a lot of shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. ... I think that all the shows look the same. Nothing is really standing out among the magazines. People have passed on being loyal to one show."

Another high-ranking exec for a major syndicator acknowledges that "a lot of these shows are stepping on each other."

Some wonder whether the magazines will ever regain the ratings ground they've lost. Worse, they worry that the genre will continue to erode.

Off-net impact

Paul Power, VP of research for King World, says "Home" and "Seinfeld" will continue to impact magazines through at least the 1996-97 season. Most stations generally keep strong off-net comedies in access slots for two years before they weaken and get moved to other time periods.

Still, most syndicators don't expect to see a shakeout in the magazine genre anytime soon. In fact, NBC and New World are tossing a new entertainment magazine, "Access Hollywood," into the fray this fall.

To be profitable, the conventional industry wisdom is that magazines with budgets in the range of $ 350,000-$ 450,000 per week have to maintain at least a 4.5 household rating.

Of the two surviving series that are both below that rating and are believed to be in the price ballpark, "Extra" has the backing of deep-pocketed Warner Bros., and "Journal" can likely get away with a smaller number because of its ability to share resources with "Inside."

Although sitcoms are probably the biggest reason for this season's ratings decline among syndie magazines, other factors are also at work.

Magazine glut

One of the most frequently cited is the proliferation of primetime network magazines -- "Dateline NBC" alone will expand to four nights this month -- that are going after the same stories.

Jack Fentress, VP-director of programming for the station rep firm Petry National TV, says the growing number of network magazines "means that viewers don't have to sit and wait for 'Hard Copy,' 'Inside Edition' or 'Entertainment Tonight' to get the same information anymore. There is just so much of it out there. ... It's so much like talkshows. Sooner or later, it reaches the point where there is overload. It's not necessarily the fault of the syndicated shows."

King World's Power disagrees, saying individuals drawn to magazines will probably watch the show that comes on at 7 p.m. as well as the one at 10.

Cable levels up

Meanwhile, cable viewing levels -- while not as high as they were last year during the Simpson saga -- remain above their pretrial levels. Power estimates the cable viewership has risen 25% over the past five years, but is still relatively low compared to broadcast TV.

Additionally, magazines are facing more competition from news and information programming on TV and Internet on-line services. There's also the political backlash against trash TV and, in what one exec calls "the natural progression of TV," the fact that many of the magazines are growing old.

Trying to explain the downward slide of the magazines, a syndie exec sums it up this way: "The whole is greater than the sum of the parts. There are a whole lot of factors at work here."